ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-
291800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.9N 82.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 281525Z 
ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-
30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFINED 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT 
TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 272000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ROBYN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
16.4S 91.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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