WTIO21 PGTW 272000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261951ZNOV24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 83.1E TO 11.0N 81.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 272000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 83.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3N 82.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST-
NORTEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGHLY DISORGANIZED, BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 
271728Z GMI 89 GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
RELATIVELY BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C, 
AND AN IMPROVING 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) REMAINS HIGH (30-40 KTS) JUST NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL STRUGGLE 
TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER 35 KTS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE 
NORTHEAST COAST OF SRI LANKA TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 
262000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
282000Z.//
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