ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 82.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM 
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGHLY DISORGANIZED, BUT PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION. A 271216Z SSMIS F16 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
FRAGMENTED, CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
OF THE RELATIVELY BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C, AND AN IMPROVING 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, 
HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS HIGH (30-40 KTS) JUST 
NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL STRUGGLE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
INTENSIFY OVER 35 KTS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SRI 
LANKA TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 262000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27NOV24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.7S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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