ABIO10 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/262100Z-271800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261951ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262021ZNOV2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 82.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 82.4E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR), AS WELL AS A 261229Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, DEPICT CURVED 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A 
PARTIAL 261508Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
HAS A SYMMETRICAL STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), SYMMETRIC 850 MB 
VORTICITY, AND LOW TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 262000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.7S 93.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
WEST NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 261601Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PARTIAL PASS INDICATES DEFINED 
AND STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH STRONG 30-35KT WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION BUT STARTING TO WRAP UP THE 
WESTERN SIDE. A 261633Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A RATHER 
DISORGANIZED LLCC, WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN 
HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, AND STRONGER, MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING 
TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
CONDUCIVE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY 
VALUE, AS WELL AS ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT POLEWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 262030) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH//
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