WTXS21 PGTW 262030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 92.8E TO 13.6S 91.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 92.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.7S 93.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
WEST NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
261601Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PARTIAL PASS INDICATES DEFINED AND 
STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH STRONG 30KT -35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION BUT STARTING TO WRAP UP THE WESTERN SIDE. A 
261633Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A RATHER DISORGANIZED LLCC, 
WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE 
CIRCULATION, AND STRONGER, MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY VALUE, AS WELL AS ROBUST 
RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S 
WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272030Z.
//
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