WTIO21 PGTW 262000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951Z NOV 24//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 82.4E TO 11.8N 82.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 82.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5N 82.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 82.4E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR), AS WELL AS A 261229Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, DEPICT CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A PARTIAL 
261508Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS A 
SYMMETRICAL STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), SYMMETRIC 850 MB 
VORTICITY, AND LOW TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 252000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272000Z.
//
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