ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252000ZNOV24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.0N 82.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 82.7E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 261229Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A 
PARTIAL 261508Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
HAS A SYMMETRICAL STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), SYMMETRIC 850 MB 
VORTICITY AND LOW TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING 
TOWARDS THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 
252000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3S 94.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM 
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 261601Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM 
PASS INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING 
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG 
850 MB VORTICITY VALUE, AS WELL AS ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
THIS IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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