ABIO10 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/260300Z-261800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252000ZNOV24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.7N 83.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 251238Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. A 241626Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH 30 KT WINDS WITHIN THE 
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-
30C, SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY AND A MIGRATION TOWARD A LOWER SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 95.1E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION. A 251534Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE BASED ON A 
252345Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A 
STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY VALUE, AS WELL AS ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT THIS IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S 
WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.////
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