WTIO21 PGTW 252000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6N 83.4E TO 9.1N 83.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.7N
83.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 83.4E 
IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN 
A 
MONSOON TROUGH. A 251238Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241626Z 
ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE 
SYMMETRICAL WITH 30 KT WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY, AND A 
MIGRATION TOWARD A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
262000Z.
//
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