ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.9N 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 251238Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 241548Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE 
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, AND MODERATELY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3S 93.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION. A 251534Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC 
WIND FIELD WITH 10-20 KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH 
(20-25 KT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DESPITE WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C AND AN IMPROVING 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL 
PERSIST AND DRIFT POLEWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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