ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.0N 88.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 241252Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 241228Z WSF-M 37 GHZ 
DATA. A 241548Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 20 KT WINDS ALONG 
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, AND MODERATELY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY 
OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.2S 92.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM 
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 
241503Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS REVEALS 96S LIES ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS, WITH 10-20 KT WINDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30 KT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DESPITE 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C AND AN IMPROVING 850 MB 
VORTICITY SIGNATURE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 96S WILL PERSIST AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTH 
INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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