ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.4N 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 439 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM STILL STRUGGLING TO FOCUS AND CONSOLIDATE, BUT 
THE ENERGY IN THE MONSOON TROF HAS INCREASED, WITH CONVECTION 
SPREADING ALL THE WAY FROM THE MALAYSIAN PENINSIULA TO OVER SRI LANKA. 
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG 
EQUATOR AND IS PAIRED WITH ITS TWIN CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE, INVEST 96S. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SYSTEM IS FAVORABLE 
FOR CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS, 
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 
29-30 C. THE MJO PULSE PROVIDING THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER 
THE FAR EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS BEFORE TRACKING OVER 
THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT 
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2S 
92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED, 
YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS 
WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR AND IS PAIRED WITH ITS TWIN 
CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, INVEST 99B. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER LOOPS SHOW AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM ALL 
SIDES AND THERE IS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE 
SYSTEM INCLUDING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES BELOW 10KTS OVER THE 
DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C. THE MJO PULSE 
PROVIDING THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN INDIAN 
OCEAN FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS BEFORE TRACKING OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT 
AND  BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE VERY SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS INDICATE VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INVEST 
96W REMAINS QUAZI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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