WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 015    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 57.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 57.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 22.5S 55.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 56.9E.
21NOV24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPDILY WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) QUICKLY ELONGATING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY 
DISORGANIZED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN THE CENTER OF 
THE BROAD AND IRREGULAR LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 210511Z ASCAT-C PASS 
SHOWING A BROAD ARC OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW, FIMP AND FMEE 
ARE ALL IN THE T1.5 TO T2.0 RANGE AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE 
FROM 29 KNOTS (ADT) TO 36 KNOTS (ADT). THE SYSTEM IS TRAVERSING A VERY 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COOL SSTS (25-26C), HIGH (40-
45 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION. 
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST 
SIDE OF THE MASCARENE HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE QUICKLY 
DISSIPATING BELOW THE BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE 
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SOME STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING AS IT MOVES NEAR 
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG JET MAX. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
210600Z IS 15 FEET.//
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