ABIO10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/140600Z-141800ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140521ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 74.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY 
OBSCURED BY DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALOFT. A 140049Z SSMIS F16 37GHZ 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO 
A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 95S AND ANTICIPATED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140530) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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