ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4S 76.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEAGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND A 
131340Z SSMIS F16 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING FRAGMENTED BANDING. 
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, 
GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 27-28C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 95S WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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