ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/
121800Z-131800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.0S 79.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 76.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DENSE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
THE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RECENT SSMIS 37 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED POSITION THAT SUPPORTS THE 
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TOWARD MADAGASCAR AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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