ABIO10 PGTW 121400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/121400Z-121800ZNOV2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.0S 79.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 76.8E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), 
WHILE A 120957Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE 
BANDING WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO FORM INTO CURVED 
BANDS NEAR THE LLCC AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE 
37GHZ BAND REVEALS THAT THIS IS NOT A FALSE MICROWAVE EYE. LATER MSI AND 
EIR IMAGERY HOWEVER SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE 
CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO FADE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
DIRECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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