ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100152ZNOV2024//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100153ZNOV2024//
NARR/REFS A, B, AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10NOV24 0000Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
19.0N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 10NOV24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 25W (MAN-YI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.2N 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 598 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 10NOV24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 26W (TORAJI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.1N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 
KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.6N 149.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH IMPROVING CURVED AND FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100030Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS REVEALS 
ELONGATED TROUGHING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A 
DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION OF 10-15 KTS NEAR THE ASSESSED LLC AND AN 
ISOLATED AREA OF 20KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT FROM THE 
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-C IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20KTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. WITH GFS BEING THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST 25 KTS IN THE 
SYSTEMS WIND FIELD. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM IS FORECASTING A SURFACE 
CIRCULATION, THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN TO 10-
15 KTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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