ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090152ZNOV2024//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090153ZNOV2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09NOV24 0000Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.8N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 09NOV24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM NORTH OF POHNPEI, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 644 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE 
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW VWS (10-15KT) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 92W TRACKING WESTWARD TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES, WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. 
AN EARLIER SMAP IMAGE AT 082105Z SHOWED A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS 
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C 
(WTPN22 PGTW 090200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.0N 151.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP 
CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 082354Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE 
SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, GOOD 
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK (PTKK) 
INDICATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS 
AND SLP NEAR 1008.9MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W 
WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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