WTPN22 PGTW 090200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 133.4E TO 15.0N 128.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 133.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.8E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 701 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
APARRI, PHILIPPINES.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AROUND A FULLY OBSCURED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW 
VWS (10-15KT) AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH 92W TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND 
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100200Z.
//
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