ABPW10 PGTW 082000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082000Z-090600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080851ZNOV2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08NOV24 1200Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.4N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3N 165.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULEJONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND NEAR 
THE CENTER OF THE LLC. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS 
MORE OF A CUSP FEATURE THAN A TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE 
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION CENTER 
EMERGING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93W 
AND GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE 
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 781 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080949Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT AN ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA 
OF FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING AND A PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A 
MORE SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN 
THE AREA ARE DEFINED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (92W), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
INDICATING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A STABLE 
WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 
94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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