ABPW10 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080900Z-090600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZNOV2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080851ZNOV2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08NOV24 0600Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.4N 118.1E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3N 165.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM 
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND NEAR 
THE CENTER OF THE LLC. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS 
MORE OF A CUSP FEATURE THAN A TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE 
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION CENTER 
EMERGING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93W 
AND GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE 
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS WELL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.0N 139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 071833Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN 
ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD AREA OF 
TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS WRAPPING TO THE 
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
2.1N 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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