ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08NOV24 0000Z, TYPHOON 24W (YINXING) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.2N 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
2.1N 156.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICT DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.8N 168.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM 
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
AN ELONGATED AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93W IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM 
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND 
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.0N 139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 071833Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN 
ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD AREA OF 
TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS WRAPPING TO THE 
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 92W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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