WTPN21 PHNC 061430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061321Z NOV 24//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 061330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 106.8W TO 9.4N 100.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 106.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 
106.4W, APPROXIMATELY 426NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10-15 KTS, GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 
DEGREES C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93E 
WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY TO 
THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071430Z.//
NNNN