WTPN21 PHNC 052000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041952ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 107.2W TO 13.3N 105.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 107.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
106.1W, APPROXIMATELY 490NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEER (5-10 KTS) AND 
POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93E WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. (WTPN21 PHNC 042000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052000Z.
//
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