WTPN21 PHNC 042000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041952ZNOV2024//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 111.3W TO 11.3N 105.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 110.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.28N
110.78W, APPROXIMATELY 512NM SOUTH OF SOCCORO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SEMI-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEER (5-10 KTS) AND MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93E WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 032000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052000Z.
//
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