WTPN21 PHNC 042000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032000Z NOV 24//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 032000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 109.2W TO 12.4N 106.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 109.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.00N 
109.2W, APPROXIMATELY 477NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCCORO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SEMI-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEER (5-10 KTS) AND 
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93E 
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
052000Z.
//
NNNN