WTPN21 PHNC 032000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 111.3W TO 11.3N 105.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 110.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.28N 
110.78W, APPROXIMATELY 512NM SOUTH OF SOCCORO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SEMI-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEER (5-10 KTS) AND MODERATE 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93E WILL 
DRIFT EASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
042000Z.//
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