WTPN21 PHNC 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 127.0W TO 11.5N 132.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 
06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011430Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 127.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11.1N 
127.6W, APPROXIMATELY 890 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND IMPROVING NEAR-
RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 011022Z AMSR2 89 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 2 DAYS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF 
THE SYSTEM. ECMWF DEVELOPS THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WHILE 
GFS SHOWS A WEAKER, BROADER CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE COMPACT SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
021500Z.//
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