ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2024-010600ZNOV2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31OCT24 0000Z, TYPHOON 23W (KONG-REY) WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 
122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.6N 157.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 832 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
A VERY BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OF 15-20 KTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GFS 
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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