WTPN21 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) CANCELLATION// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240300ZOCT2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240300). THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241610Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF FRAGMENTED FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.// NNNN