ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9N 92.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 211213Z 91GHZ SSMIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF 
FLARING CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY 
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 
98B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM 
(28-29C), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 98B WILL GENERALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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