WTPN21 PHNC 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 96.3W TO 14.0N 102.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 97.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 
97.2W, APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUUTH OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210033Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION, AND 
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 90E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90E SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
220200Z.//
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