ABIO10 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/210130Z-211800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8N 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 92.20E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM 
NORTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
201951Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY BEGINNING TO 
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98B IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C), GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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