ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z-
211800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N 
93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201456Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98B IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(30C), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL GENERALLY TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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