WTPN21 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 138.4E TO 15.4N 132.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 138.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385NM WEST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
BOUNDED BY FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 191136Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM SCATTEROMETERY PASS
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96W HAS MODERATE WINDS (15-20KTS) FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND A BAND OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAP IN TO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
201500Z.//
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