ABPW10 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191500Z-200600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191451ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST 
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
BOUNDED BY FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 191136Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM SCATTEROMETERY PASS 
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96W HAS MODERATE WINDS (15-20KTS) FROM THE NORTHEAST 
AND A BAND OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAP IN TO THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND 
CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8N 138.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH. 
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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