ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), 
OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL GENERALLY TRACK IN A SLOW AND 
ERRATIC DIRECTION NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM 
WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY 
WEAK VORTEX WITH LIGHT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS 
A DISCERNABLE VORTEX AND DEEP MOISTURE FIELDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE 
BEGINNING TO FOCUS AROUND THE VORTEX. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
THAT THE AREA IS RICH, AND NEARLY IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT NARROW, 
WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30C), 
OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). THE FAVORABLE AXIS 
OF DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH WEST BETWEEN THE 11TH 
AND 15 LATITUDES. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS BEEN 
ALIGNING AND SHOWING MORE CONVICTION THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN