ABPW10 PGTW 190330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190330Z-190600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 136.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 
144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A 
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK IN A SLOW AND ERRATIC DIRECTION NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N 
138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK VORTEX WITH LIGHT WINDS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A DISCERNABLE VORTEX AND DEEP 
MOISTURE FIELDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS AROUND THE 
VORTEX.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE AREA IS RICH, AND 
NEARLY IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT NARROW, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30C), OFFSET BY MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). THE FAVORABLE AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT 
EXTENDING NEARLY DUE EAST THROUGH WEST BETWEEN THE 11TH AND 15 
LATITUDES. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS BEEN ALIGNING 
AND SHOWING MORE CONVICTION THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL 
DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) TO
MEDIUM.//
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