ABPW10 PGTW 182300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182300Z-190600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 180004Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY 
WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST 
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING 
FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 
144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A 
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK IN A SLOW AND ERRATIC DIRECTION NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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