ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION 
OVER THE CENTER. A 180004Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO AID IN THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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