ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N 
143.5E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF 
TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 162330Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC 
WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (31 C) WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING 
FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK MOVING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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