ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z-
131800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7N 69.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 66.1E, APPROXIMATELY 519 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH, OMAN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH BROAD INSTANCES 
OF CYCLING CONVECTION. A 10120532Z ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THIS BY DEPICTING 
A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION LIKE CIRCULATION WITH ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELDS  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 95A IS IN A MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS 
WELL AS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (15-20KTS), OFFSET BY WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT 
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WEAK CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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