ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 130.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 72 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH, WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 
HOURS. A 120114 ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE DEPICTS 15 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH, 
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION, AND WEAKER (LESS THAN 10 KTS) 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (15-20KTS), WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). 
CURRENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE TO NO 
DEVELOPMENT FOR 91W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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