ABIO10 PGTW 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/102200Z-111800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N 
69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101848Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. A PARTIAL 101730Z ASCAT-C PASS 
REVEALS WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 95A IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
95A WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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