WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 148.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 148.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 26.7N 148.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 29.2N 149.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 148.3E.
08OCT24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL PATCH OF SHALLOW FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM. THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS SHEARED 
100+ NM NORTHEASTWARD THRU SOUTHEASTWARD. TD 21W IS CURRENTLY UNDER 
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING 25-30 KTS (AND INCREASING WITH 
ITS POLEWARD TRACK) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STEADY 
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST, OFFSET ONLY BY STILL WARM (28-29C) 
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MINOR CONVECTION FLARES ARE 
QUICKLY DECOUPLED FROM THE SYSTEM AND SHEARED EASTWARD, AS SEEN ON THE 
EIR LOOP. BASED ON THE 081332Z OSCAT AND THE 082310Z ASCAT UHR 
WINDSPEED PASSES, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 KTS WITHIN 25-30 NM 
OF THE LLCC, WHILE 25-KT WINDS ARE DETACHED OUT TO 115-140 NM TO THE 
EAST AND UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DETACHED FROM THE CYCLONE. 
WHILE SOME INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPING AND 
INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM, THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, 
DEVELOPMENT AND STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANTICIPATED INCREASING 
VWS AND COOLING SST, IS THAT TD 21W WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY 
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 
081800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 
FEET.//
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