ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051921ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2N 146.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 209 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 060408Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OF THE SYSTEM AND A FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL GENERALLY 
TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 99W TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW AND STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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