ABPW10 PGTW 051930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051930Z-060600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051921ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM 
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MODERATE FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 051409Z OSCAT3 
SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, 15-20 KNOT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOOSELY WRAP INTO 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT 99W IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WEAK 
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W 
WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 99W TRACKING NORTHWARD 
WITH SLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO 23-28 
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) 
TO HIGH.//
NNNN