WTPN22 PHNC 011400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 14.0N 98.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 13 TO 18 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 98.8W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0N 98.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
INVEST 97E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97E WILL VEER AND TRACK 
NORTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021400Z.//
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