ABIO10 PGTW 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/302200ZSEP2024-011800ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 
78.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE 
NORTHWEST. THIS LLCC SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS 
BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. A 301627Z  PARTIAL ASCAT-B 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEAL STRONG (25-30KTS) WINDS IN THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 91S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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